FUD and Dud



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June 15, 2007 —  (Page 1 of 2)
Generally, the business goings-on of Microsoft are sufficiently distanced from the facts of their technologies that I leave business analysis to others. Reciprocally, the Wall Street Journal hardly ever takes a stand on threading models. Two recent items, though—the ugly patent-violation claims against Linux and the staggering US$6 billion purchase of aQuantive—are impossible to ignore, going, as they do, to the greatest shortcoming that a technology company can suffer: appearing to be unable to compete on merit.

Given the Kafka-esque absurdities of the patent system, it is entirely possible that Microsoft’s intellectual property portfolio contains some claims that are duplicated in Linux components. Nonetheless, the patent-violation claims made by Brad Smith and Horacio Gutierrez in an interview with Fortune magazine are textbook examples of FUD. Sowing “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” was, remember, a contemptible practice originally deployed by IBM to maintain dominance. The claims of Smith and Gutierrez, with specific numbers associated with various subsystems, were not the result of a plausibly deniable slip during a question-and-answer period, but rather were as accidental as a carrier group in the Strait of Hormuz. The McCarthy-like refusal to be specific (“I have here in my hand a list of names…”) was additionally off-putting.

Yet the possibility of a serious Microsoft assault on IP violations in open source software is minimal. At the risk of overstretching the military metaphors, a strike against Linux would draw retaliation from IBM, Novell and any number of minor powers. The logic of the Cold War and mutually assured destruction applies.

The aQuantive acquisition is less clear-cut in its noncompetitiveness, but the numbers don’t seem to add up. The $6 billion aQuantive purchase is a direct response to Google’s US$3 billion acquisition of DoubleClick. aQuantive earned US$442 million in 2006. Microsoft paid around 14 times that; Google bought DoubleClick for around 10 times that company’s US$300 million revenue. The premium paid relative to earnings is startling enough, but when you look at just the ad-serving components, it gets even more stark. aQuantive’s Atlas Suite earned only around $152 million in 2006, a level not much greater than DoubleClick’s ad-serving earnings in 2004 prior to being taken private. (The majority of aQuantive’s revenue comes from Avenue A/Razorfish, which Microsoft will almost certainly sell or spin off.) Since DoubleClick serves about 50 percent more impressions per month than Atlas, and DoubleClick has already sold off most of its non-ad-serving components, it’s a virtual certainty that Google got a much better rate per ad impression than did Microsoft.




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