Well then, our little entry on Google building its own router made quite a splash, didn't it? I've contacted both companies, today, and as yet, neither wants to say peep either for or against the story. But I've been reading the comments all over the blogosphere, and felt a few clarifications on this rumor are in order.

First of all, Juniper isn't a one trick pony. The company has lots of other big customers, and it's even backing into the switch market, now, with some really cool lower stack hardware. However, Google is undoubtedly a major chunk of the “buys the biggest, newest thing” sector of the Juniper economy. In a market where that means paying upwards of a million dollars per router, that can really be bad for the bottom line. Plus, in an entirely unsubstantiated rumor I've also heard recently, Verizon is slowly moving towards boutique router makers, so there are more reasons to be bearish on Juniper than just the Google aspect. In this economy, every customer matters. With Google being the closest and biggest customer for Junipers big boxes, this could really damage the company. I stand by the predicition that Juniper is in major trouble here.

Another area people are confused on is what these boxes Google is working on are. They are not switches. We all knew about those already. These are routers. 

The thing many people seem to be missing in this story is why Google would be doing this. If you're paying $10 million for a box that routes your traffic, and another couple thousand a month for service and support, it's easy for an MBA to see where the budget can be tightened. Especially if your company has great engineers and some people poached from Cisco on its staff. 

Not to mention the fact that Google is increasingly pushing the limits on every aspect of its services. Think about this for a moment: backbone transports are essential to making the Internet work. But when you get right down to it, most telecoms have these in big lines where they can follow problems in their network and track down issues on their own turf. Google must be set up, internally, in a similar way. But then, the company has to colo around the world. It has to offer its services at high speeds in China, Africa, Europe, the US, and can you imagine how much traffic Orkut alone generates in Brazil? Everything about Google is growing. And the services and products it offers are growing constantly as well. Unlike telecom, where most of the cables and centers are well established, and filled with government mandated transfer points, Google's worldwide network must be a hodge podge of rented land, self-built facilities, and all manner of local phone pipes. Google's needs must by wildly unique.

It stands to reason that the demands of Google are very different from the demands of Verizon, AT&T, or even Akamai. YouTube alone is a massive bandwidth suck, and Google has to push those videos into all manner of foreign telecom networks at ludicrous rates. Telecoms know how to deal with those foreign worlds. I'd estimate that Google is either hiring its way into those worlds, or discovering how they work on a daily basis.

On another front, the best form of security, these days, is obscurity. Google leaves one Juniper router open accidentally, and there's a JUNOS nerd in there screwing things up. Google leaves its own proprietary box open accidentally, and maybe a disgruntled employee can mess it up. Much smaller pool of danger, really.

Finally, Google probably needs new routers on a daily basis. Buying those takes time, effort, and sales contracts. Who wouldn't want to weasel out of yet another sales obligation with a company that's talented, but pricey. From the right angle, Juniper is basically the designer Cisco. The Apple to Cisco's Microsoft.

The fundamental message of this rumor -- and keep in mind this is all just a rumor at the moment -- is that Google is working on routers for its own use. They might have something to do with its dark fiber. They might be targeted at internal usage or VPN distribution around the world. We just don't know. I can tell you one thing, though: Google won't be selling these things. Probably won't open source them either. This is their solution to an internal problem, and it's probably heavily influenced by the bottom line.

I'd wager that Google is pretty upset about this rumor being out there now. I bet Juniper rakes them over the coals on the next sales contract negotiation. Precisely why I can't name my sources, though. Heads would roll.

Anyway, this is a blog. It's a blog about a rumor. I have very high confidence in this rumor, as I heard it from multiple sources in unrelated places over a period of three months. Lord knows I've been wrong in the past, so don't shoot the messenger here. I'm just keeping all you wonderful people in the loop. Would you prefer we reported on love affairs, like Valleywag? We thought not.