Gphone Rumors Hint at Broad Mobile Strategy - Software Development Times On The Web

Gphone Rumors Hint at Broad Mobile Strategy
By Alex Handy

October 23, 2007 — Google, the darling of Silicon Valley, could soon become the belle of the mobile service provider ball. According to unnamed sources inside Google, the company is embarking on a strategy to join its nationwide fiber optic networks, the 700MHz spectrum, an x86-based handset and a brand-new JavaScript engine as a platform underlying its "Gphone" project. But even without these leaked details, Google's broader business moves are already telegraphing the individual pieces of the puzzle.

Specifically, Google CEO Eric Schmidt's bold offer to purchase the entire 700MHz spectrum in the upcoming FCC auction hints at a broader wireless play from the company. Although his initial bid of US$4.6 billion for the whole kit and kaboodle will likely fall short of the final price for this chunk of the ether, Schmidt’s willingness to commit such a large amount of Google's money to wireless spectrum shows just how much the company is banking on a mobile future.

Why should any of this matter to a software developer? JavaScript's importance to business is apparent, and Google's moves indicate a conformity to norms, not a move toward original standards and wild new environments. Java developers would almost certainly rely on the successful Google Web Toolkit to translate their applications into JavaScript, and Microsoft-based developers shouldn't have trouble adapting to an x86 environment. Perhaps Google's smartest move of all is giving developers an environment and programming language they already know. However, if the company's phone were to include this new JavaScript engine in an x86-based Gphone, it would wade into a marketplace already ripe with iPhone-compatible JavaScript applications and oodles of x86-knowledgeable developers. Repeated attempts to reach a Google spokesperson for comment went unanswered.

But sources inside Google corroborate rumors of the combination of the company's large holdings of unused cross-U.S. fiber optic networks. The company has not been talkative about its purchases of these networks, but various clues have cropped up that Google has been amassing long-haul network capabilities since the end of the first dot-com bubble. From the company's new data centers in remote regions of Oregon to its help-wanted ads seeking employees with experience in negotiating for dark fiber purchases, sources are simply confirming information that has been trickling out slowly over the past five years.

Those long-haul cables could form the basis of a Google mobile phone network. But the prospect of building a phone network from scratch makes some analysts skeptical. Kanishka Agarwal, vice president of mobile media at Nielsen Mobile, analyzes mobile phone trends and service availability across geographical markets. He said that if Google builds its own phone network, the biggest question is differentiation.

Agarwal said that building a mobile network is a high capital expense. “What the consumer wants is seamless integration across all kinds of networks, so they have continuous access to the service at the lowest price possible," Agarwal said. "What would Google have to offer to make something more compelling? Consumers can already get access to landlines and cell lines. Is Google going to offer something that breaks that barrier and makes it seamless? Google has a great brand, but so do Verizon, Sprint, AT&T and T-Mobile.”

As for the actual “Gphone,” multiple sources inside of Google have confirmed that the company has a device, and that it is being shown around internally to increasingly larger audiences.

A Google JavaScript engine could irk the Mozilla Foundation, which earns much of its revenue from the Google search tool embedded in its Firefox browser menu bar. But rumors of a Google browser have been circulating for longer than rumors of a Google phone, and neither of these have yet surfaced outside of the company. And, indeed, Google does offer many JavaScript-intensive projects, such as the Google Web Toolkit, leaving potential for any JavaScript engine built by Google to be applied to one or more of these other projects.

Perhaps the largest and most nebulous portion of the Gphone plan is the service. One internal source indicated that Google hopes to build cellular service on the model of television: advertising-supported and free to any who own a receiver. Thus, in lieu of a monthly service charge, Google phones would offer up targeted, location-based advertising to users. A user could find his phone pointing him toward the nearest pizzeria when noon rolls around, provided the pizzeria has paid for the privilege.

But this plan, too, makes Agarwal skeptical. “I would wager that there is a segment of this consumer world where, no matter where you walk, someone's talking to you about ads. I like to call this ad-supported, not ad-funded. There are always people who are so price-sensitive, they will always be in a [free, ad-supported model]. There will be people who will pay premium dollars to not have to deal with that. On average, advertising would subsidize” but not fund the entire service, he argued.

As for the Gphone itself, it remains unclear whether the device will appear at any time in the near future. All of these rumors center on the company's showing of the actual device to its employees and select outsiders. With the needed 700MHz spectrum not due for auction until this coming January, a Gphone being shown internally would seem to be further along in development than the network on which it may eventually reside.

That could be the actual plan, however, as Google has yet to actually dip its toes into the mobile device business. Were it to venture into this market, an initial foray into the space would do wonders to improve the company's perspective on the potential problems of the business.

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