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The Trouble with Gerrold: Using all the petaflops



David Gerrold
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November 14, 2012 —  (Page 1 of 4)
The first personal computers were called microcomputers, and they were powered by a 2MHz 8-bit Z80 chip. If you had a couple thousand dollars to spare, you could load the machine up with a whopping 64 kilobytes of RAM.

Then Moore’s Law kicked in.

Actually, it’s not a law, it’s an observation. In 1965, Gordon E. Moore, the cofounder of Intel, published a paper in which he noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from 1958 to 1965. He predicted that the trend would continue for at least another 10 years.

He understated the case.

Before the end of the 1970s, it was obvious that an 8-bit microprocessor was insufficient. The 16-bit 8088 powered the first IBM PCs. Actually, it was a 16-bit chip with an external 8-bit data bus so it could use cheaper supporting logic chips, but that was the beginning of the x86 processor line.

The 286 chip ran at 6MHz, then 8MHz, and eventually 12.5MHz. This was the real beginning of the race for power. The 286 was followed by the 386, which ran at 33MHz. It was the first 32-bit chip, and it was fast enough to make Windows a practical operating system.

The 486 ran at 50MHz. In those days, every advance in speed was significant. It made a noticeable difference in the response time of every piece of software, and that fueled the hunger for ever more powerful upgrades.

Instead of a 586, Intel released the Pentium chip, which went through several iterations over the next few years, each time getting faster and more powerful. The first Pentium premiered in 1993 and ran at 60MHz. By 1999, the Pentium III was running as fast as 1.13GHz. The Pentium 4, released in 2006, can hit 3.6GHz on the straightaway. The Pentium D hits 3.73GHz.

Throughout the 1990s, processor speeds continued to accelerate. All those extra clock cycles allowed programmers to add more features to their software, and even create whole new categories of software. We moved from word processors and spreadsheets to speech recognition, image processing, CGI rendering, video editing, and powerful 3D games.



Related Search Term(s): multicore

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Comments


11/14/2012 01:16:29 PM EST

We will need the petaflops to make bobbles, of course. Sheesh, don't you read science fiction? ;)

United StatesJamie Hanrahan


11/14/2012 01:23:29 PM EST

I think you've hit the nail on the head here, David. We can push processing power all day long, but unless that power is used effectively and *efficiently*, a lot of it is going to go to waste (witness the vast number of 64 multithread machines still running 32 single thread applications). In general computing, it's going to require a hiccup in the Moore's Law gradient. You can talk "best practices" out the ear, but product bloat exists because it *can*. In games, particularly console and handhelds where the available memory is tightly controlled, you already have a culture of minimal code/maximum result, so I feel the innovations and 45 degree thinking about the problem will start to show up there first. As programmers come to the end of their career cycle (or sanity) in games, they move into more business oriented positions and they take that innovation with them.

United StatesKimberly Unger


11/14/2012 01:27:08 PM EST

Great article, I have been thinking about the various speed changes lately, and you explained in a way I could really understand.

United StatesJanet Schmidt


11/15/2012 09:43:28 AM EST

It seems to me that much of this concept, multiple processors with dedicated functions, was what the Commodore Amiga was based on. At the time I was not paying that much attention to the arch1tecture as I was the graphic capabilities. (It took the Intel based machines nearly a decade to be able to produce similar graphics.) As I recall the Motorola 68000 series processor was the main IC but it was supported by discrete processors dedicated to memory management, sound, graphics, IO and so on. Coupled with the C++ based Intuition OS the Amiga was agile, capable and quite advanced for its time. (Coupled with New Tec's Video Toaster Amigas were doing the CG for Babylon 5, Seaquest DSV and Robocop the Series)

United StatesRobert Rearick


11/19/2012 10:09:00 PM EST

I once spent half an hour programming an ELF 1802 COSMAC 'microcomputer' to send a clumsy collection of blocky pixels in the shape of the Enterprise across my TV screen. Now I'm typing on a PC that can simultaneously play music, surf the net, run a word processor or two, and do some amazing graphic manipulation. I can't wait to see what I'll be doing in 2020! Great article. Thanks!

United StatesFrank Tuttle


11/19/2012 10:27:37 PM EST

I think we will have programmers that think in multiple threads. At some point, I think it's entirely possible that computers will become the programmers. Or maybe that's science fiction. Sometimes I get those lines blurred. :)

United StatesTerri


11/19/2012 11:36:52 PM EST

Excellent article. I remember as an office worker in the 90's and early 2000's, I was frustrated because my computers never seemed to be able to think as rapidly as I could on my own. They just couldn't keep up. Opening multiple programs would cause the entire system to collapse under the strain. Getting a computer that was "better, stronger, faster" meant MY processors were freed up, allowing me to think and work faster, and STILL be frustrated by the apparent inability of the computer to keep up! I recall conversations with others about "serial versus parallel" in processors. To have computers and programs that can literally "think" and make choices more complex than "if yes, then on" is creeping up. Some kind of flexible, almost organic, guide within the system that can decide what to decide! I was pleasantly surprised to find a variety of cell phones that do appear to have "intelligence" in some of their programs. It's still in its infancy, to be sure, but I do think it can grow - as long as the programmers DO get beyond what they were taught in school about programs! And of course, the saltation required may come from somewhere or someone not related to the computer field at all. We just have to be aware and open to the possibilities around us!

United StatesBrandy


11/20/2012 04:11:28 PM EST

I remember taking all those programming courses knowing that they would be both irrelevent and obsolete before I got a job using anything I learned. Now, the processors are still not fast enough for some operations, and too fast for others. The thing to do is stop worrying; be happy. The human brain will NEVER be obsolete.

United StatesTheresa M. Moore


11/21/2012 03:22:20 AM EST

Each generation of computers leapfrogs the past yet the price has held, if not dropped. Funny thing is, when you buy a new computer, it seems there is one sitting in the warehouse that is far faster and superior. As you pointed out, the next great frontier is in software design. I wish I had that aptitude. Drat. I'm sad when I remember spending nearly $2,000 for my Amiga 3000 back in the early 1990s. And I thought my computer (back then) was hot stuff!!! I'm wondering when Hal 9000 or H.A.R.L.I.E. will become a reality! Very interesting article, David.

United StatesDoug Mappin


11/26/2012 04:26:38 PM EST

I for one hope that we hit some solid speed on the hardware side soon; I want to live long enough to see what mature, optimized that has been through multiple generations of evolution within the same system resource "box"! Remember Borland? Just imagine what software would look like after all these years if Kahn of Borland's paradigm had prevailed over the MS/Lotus crowd’s lawyers. If that day comes when the competition is about the elegance of the execution of the intent of the programmer within stable hardware performance limits, I think most software will have that Quicken/Side-Kick feel of excellence.

United StatesGuy DeWhitney


11/26/2012 04:28:36 PM EST

I for one hope that we hit some solid speed LIMIT on the hardware side soon; I want to live long enough to see what mature, optimized that has been through multiple generations of evolution within the same system resource "box"! Remember Borland? Just imagine what software would look like after all these years if Kahn of Borland's paradigm had prevailed over the MS/Lotus crowd’s lawyers. If that day comes when the competition is about the elegance of the execution of the intent of the programmer within stable hardware performance limits, I think most software will have that Quicken/Side-Kick feel of excellence.

United StatesGuy DeWhitney


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