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Short Takes: September 1, 2009

By SD Times News Team

September 1, 2009 — (Page 1 of 3)
McCarthy’s Four Laws of Software Estimation
“Developers,” said my friend Mac, “are really bad at guessing how long it takes to write software." Michael “Mac” McCarthy and I go back to the mid-1980s. What Mac likes to do most, beyond enjoying a fine Chardonnay and talking politics, is making observations about the world of technology. While he’s not a programmer himself, he has worked closely with them for years, and has managed many software projects at media companies and startups.

Over the course of a delicious lunch at Harry’s Hofbrau in Foster City, Calif., Mac shared some good stories about his experiences with corporate development teams. As part of that, he stated some principles that, with his permission, I’ve repackaged and labeled as “McCarthy’s Four Laws of Software Estimation.”

The First Law: If you ask a developer for a project estimate, and if he thinks the project is a good idea or would pose an interesting challenge, then he’ll say “three weeks.”

The developer has no idea how long it will take, but “three weeks” sounds encouraging enough that you’ll probably go ahead with the project.

The Second Law: If you ask a developer for a project estimate, and if he thinks the project is a bad idea or wouldn't be fun to work on, then he’ll say “six months.”

The developer still has no idea how long it will take, but “six months” sounds negative enough that you’ll probably say “never mind.”

The Third Law: Whether the developer estimated “three weeks” or “six months,” if the project proceeds it actually will take a minimum of nine months.

That's because, Mac says, developers are bad at software estimation.

The Fourth Law: When asked why the project is behind schedule, the developer will blame inadequate or incomplete specifications.

What’s your experience: Are developers good or bad at project estimation? Do their estimates vary depending on whether they like your idea or not? Write me at feedback@bzmedia.com. — Alan Zeichick

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